I te 24 o Hune, i whakaputa a Astute Analytica, he kaitātari me te kamupene tohutohu ā-ao, i tētahi tātaritanga o te aomuka waroi roto i te mākete mata hurihuri o ngā tāhū hau, pūrongo 2024-2032. E ai ki te tātaritanga o te pūrongo, ko te rahi o te mākete muka waro o te ao i roto i ngā mata hurihuri o ngā tāhū hau i tata ki te $4,392 miriona i te tau 2023, ā, e matapaetia ana ka eke ki te $15,904 miriona i te tau 2032, ka tipu i te CAGR o te 15.37% i roto i te wā matapae o 2024-2032.
Ngā kōrero matua o te pūrongo e pā ana ki te tono omuka waroKei roto i ngā mata o te tāhū hau ngā wāhanga e whai ake nei:
- Mā te rohe, ko te mākete muka waro o Āhia-Moananui-a-Kiwa mō te hiko hau te mea nui rawa atu i te tau 2023, ko te 59.9% tēnei;
- E ai ki te rahi o te mata o te tāhū hau, he nui te ōwehenga tono o te muka waro, arā, 38.4% i roto i te rahi o ngā mata 51-75 mita;
- Mai i te tirohanga o ngā wāhanga tono, ko te ōwehenga tono o te muka waro i roto i te taupoki kurupae parirau mata o te tāpine hau e 61.2%.
Ko ngā ia o te whanaketanga o ngā mata o ngā tāhū hau i ngā tau tata nei ko:
- Ngā whanaketanga hangarau i roto i te ahumahi: ngā whakapainga tonu i roto i ngā tukanga whakaputa muka waro me ngā āhuatanga rauemi;
- Te roa haere o te mata: kei te piki haere te hiahia mō ngā mata roa ake, māmā ake hoki hei whakapai ake i te hopu pūngao me te whai huatanga;
- Te tipu o te mākete ā-rohe: nā te pikinga o te tono pūngao me ngā kaupapa here tautoko a te kāwanatanga, kua tino whānui haere te mākete i te rohe o Āhia-Moana-nui-a-Kiwa.
Ko ngā wero nui rawa atu ki te tono omuka waroKo ngā rau o te tāhū hau ko ēnei e whai ake nei:
- Te nui o ngā utu haumitanga tuatahi: he nui te pūtea e hiahiatia ana mō te hanga muka waro me te whakauru ki ngā tāhū hau;
- Te wātea o te mekameka tuku me ngā rauemi mata, e hiahia ana kia tukuna tonutia ngā rauemi muka waro kounga teitei;
- Ngā arai hangarau me ngā arai hanga: ngā wero ki te whakanui ake i te mahi whakaputa me te whakaiti i ngā utu hei whakataetae ki ngā rauemi tuku iho pēnei i te muka karāhe.
Tata ki te 45% o ngā mata o ngā tāhū hau hou i hangaia i te tau 2024 he mea hanga kimuka waro, ā, 70% o ngā whakaurunga hau tai hou i runga i te kaipuke i te tau 2023 e whakamahi ana i ngā mata muka waro
Kua neke atu i te 1 TW te kaha tāuta katoa o te ao i te tau 2023. E whakaatu ana tēnei tere whānui i te tūranga matua o te umanga ki te whakatairanga i ngā otinga pūngao hou hei whawhai i te huringa āhuarangi, ā, ko tētahi o ngā take matua o tōna tere tipu teitei ko te hiahia e tipu haere ana mō ngā rauemi whai hua me te pakari ake i roto i te hanganga o ngā tāpine hau, inā koa ko te muka waro mō ngā mata hurihuri.
Ko ngā āhuatanga pai o ngā rauemi muka waro ki te whakaritea ki ngā muka karāhe tuku iho kei te akiaki i te pikinga o te tono mōmuka waromō ngā mata hurihuri o ngā tāpine hau. He nui te ōwehenga kaha-ki-taumaha o te muka waro, he mea nui tēnei mō te whakapai ake i te mahi me te roa o te ora o ngā tāpine hau. Tata ki te 45% o ngā mata hurihuri hou i hangaia i te tau 2024 i hangaia ki te muka waro, he pikinga 10% mai i te tau o mua. Ko te hiahia ki te whakaputa i ngā tāpine nui ake, whai hua ake ka taea te whakaputa putanga teitei ake te take o tēnei ia; inaa, kua piki te kaha toharite o ngā tāpine ki te 4.5 megawatts (MW), he pikinga 15 ōrau mai i te tau 2022.
E whakaatu ana te tātaritanga hōhonu a Astute Analytica i te mākete muka waro i roto i ngā mata o ngā mīhini hau i ētahi tatauranga matua e whakaatu ana i te ia tipu nui o te muka waro i tēnei wāhanga. He mea nui, kua eke te kaha o te pūngao hau o te ao ki te 1,008 GW, he pikinga o te 73 GW i te tau 2023 anake. Tata ki te 70% o ngā whakaurunga hau hou i te moana i te tau 2023 (20 GW katoa) e whakamahi ana i ngā mata muka waro nā te mea he ātete nui ake ki ngā taiao moana kino. Hei tāpiri, kua whakaatuhia te whakamahinga o te muka waro ka roa ake te ora o ngā mata mā te 30% me te whakaiti i ngā utu tiaki mā te 25%, he mea matua mō ngā kaipupuri umanga e whai ana ki te arotau i te whai huatanga o te mahi.
Hei tāpiritanga, nā ngā kaupapa here whakatenatena me ngā whakahau a te kāwanatanga kia tutuki te kore waro i te tau 2050 i tere ake te haumi ki te whakapai ake i ngā pāmu hau o nāianei, me te 50% o ngā kaupapa whakahou i te tau 2023 i uru ki te whakakapinga o ngā mata muka karāhe ki ngā momo muka waro.
He mea nui ngā taupoki hau muka waro hei whakapai ake i te pai o te mahi a te tāpine hau, me te 70% o ngā mata tāpine hau hou e matapaetia ana ka whai taupoki hau muka waro i te tau 2028.
Nā te kaha motuhake me te pakari o ngā potae spar muka waro, e whakaatu ana tētahi rangahaumuka waroKa taea e ngā taupoki taura te whakapai ake i te mahi a te mata tae atu ki te 20%, ka roa ake ngā mata me te nui ake o te hopukanga pūngao. He mea nui te mahi a ngā taupoki taura muka waro ki te pikinga 30% o te roa o te mata hau i roto i te tekau tau kua hipa.
Ko tētahi atu take mō te whakamahimuka waroKo te take o ngā taupoki o ngā mata o te tāpine hau, ka whakaitihia te taumaha o te mata mā te 25%, ka whakaitihia ngā utu rauemi me te kawe. Hei tāpiri, ko te roa o te ora o te taupoki muka waro he 50% teitei ake i ngā rauemi tuku iho, ka whakaitihia ngā utu tiaki, ka roa ake hoki te ora o te tāpine.
I te mahi a te umanga hau ki te whakatutuki i ngā whāinga pūngao hou o te ao, ka piki ake te whakamahinga o ngā taupoki parirau me ngā taupoki papa muka waro. E kiia ana ko te 70% o ngā mata tāpine hau hou ka whai taupoki papa muka waro i te tau 2028, ki te whakaritea ki te 45% i te tau 2023. E matapaetia ana ka piki ake te pai o te mahi tāpine katoa mā te 22% i tēnei panonitanga. Mā te whanaketanga o te hangarau muka waro e whakanui ake ana i te kaha o te rauemi mā te 10 ōrau me te whakaiti i tōna pānga ki te taiao mā te 5 ōrau, e matapaetia ana ka kaha te ao o ngā taupoki papa hau, ka huri i te hoahoa tāpine hau, kia mau tonu ai te kaha me te whai hua o te heke mai mō te pūngao hou.
Ko ngā mata o te tāhū hau 51-75 m te roa e tino rongonui ana i te ao whānui.muka warote mākete mata o te tāhū hau, ā, mā te whakamahi i ngā mata muka waro ka taea te whakanui ake i te whakaputanga hiko mā te 25 ōrau
Nā te whai i te whai huatanga, te roa me te mahi, kua noho te wāhanga muka waro 51-75 mita o te mākete mata o te tāhū hau hei tino kaha i roto i te muka waro. Nā ngā āhuatanga ahurei o te muka waro he rauemi tino pai mō tēnei kāwai rahi. Ko te ōwehenga kaha-ki-taumaha teitei o te rauemi e rima ngā wā i te ōwehenga maitai, ka tino whakaiti i te taumaha katoa o te mata, ka hua ake he pai ake te hopu pūngao me te whai huatanga. Ko tēnei wāhanga roa te wāhi pai e arotauhia ai te taurite i waenga i te utu rauemi me te mahi, ā, he 60% te wāhi mākete o ngā mata muka waro i roto i tēnei kāwai.
Nā te ōhanga o te pūngao hau i whai wāhi atu ki te rongonui o te muka waro i tēnei rāngai. Ko te utu tīmatanga teitei ake o te muka waro ka ea i te roa o tōna ora me te iti o te tiaki. Ko ngā mata i hangaia ki te muka waro he roa ake te ora ratonga 20% i roto i te awhe o te 51-75 mita ki te whakataurite ki ngā mata i hangaia ki ngā rauemi tuku iho. Hei tāpiri, ka whakaitihia te utu huringa ora o ēnei mata mā te 15% nā te iti o ngā whakakapinga me ngā whakatikatika. Mō te putanga pūngao, ka taea e ngā tāpine me ngā mata muka waro i roto i tēnei awhe roa te whakaputa hiko tae atu ki te 25% te nui ake, ka hua ake he hokinga tere ake o te haumi. E whakaatu ana ngā raraunga mākete kua piki ake te whakamahinga o te muka waro i roto i tēnei wāhanga mā te 30% ia tau i roto i ngā tau e rima kua hipa.
Ko te hiahia mō ngā pūtake pūngao tauwhiro me te whakahou anō hoki mō ngā āhuatanga o te mākete o ngā mata o ngā mīhini hau, e matapaetia ana ka tukuna e te pūngao hau te 30% o te hiko o te ao i te tau 2030. He tino pai ngā mata 51-75 m mō ngā pāmu hau o waho, he mea nui ngā mīhini hau nui ake, he pai ake hoki. Kua piki ake te whakatinanatanga o ngā whakaurunga o waho mā te whakamahi i ngā mata muka waro mā te 40%, nā ngā kaupapa here a te kāwanatanga me ngā tautoko e aro ana ki te whakaiti i ngā tapuwae waro. Ko te mana o tēnei wāhanga mākete e whakanuia ana e te takoha 50% a te muka waro ki te tipu whānui o te umanga hau, e hanga ana i te...muka waroehara i te mea he kōwhiringa rauemi noa iho, engari he tūāpapa mō te hanganga pūngao ā muri ake nei.
Nā te kaha o te hau i Āhia-Moana-nui-a-Kiwa i kaha ai te muka waro mō ngā mata o te tāhū hau
Nā te whanaketanga o te umanga pūngao hau, kua puta ake a Āhia Moana-nui-a-Kiwa hei kaihoko nui o te muka waro mō ngā mata o ngā tāhū hau. Neke atu i te 378.67 GW o te kaha o te mana hau kua tāutahia i te tau 2023, tata ki te 38% o te kaha o te mana hau kua tāutahia o te ao te rohe. Ko Haina me Īnia ngā kaiārahi, ā, ko Haina anake e takoha ana i te 310 GW, arā, 89% o te kaha o te rohe.
Hei tāpiritanga, ko Haina te kaiārahi o te ao i roto i te huihuinga nacelle o ngā turbine hau o uta, me te kaha ā-tau o te 82 GW. I te Pipiri 2024, kua tāutahia e Haina te 410 GW o te pūngao hau. Ko ngā whāinga kaha o te rohe mō te pūngao whakahou, e akiakihia ana e te tipu haere o te tono pūngao me ngā herenga taiao, me whai hangarau matatau me te whai hua.
Kei te rohe o Āhia-Moana-nui-a-Kiwa ngā kaihanga muka waro matua, e whakarite ana i te tuku pumau o te muka waro me te auahatanga hangarau. Nā te mama o te muka waro ka taea te whakanui ake i te diameter rotor me te whakapai ake i te pai o te hopu pūngao. Nā tēnei kua piki ake te putanga pūngao mō ngā whakaurunga hou mā te 15% ki te whakataurite ki ngā rauemi tuku iho. I te mea e matapaetia ana ka piki ake te kaha o te mana hau mā te 30% i te tau 2030, ka piki haere tonu te whakamahinga o te muka waro i roto i ngā tāhū hau i te rohe o Āhia-Moana-nui-a-Kiwa.
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